For the products we use, as they are top of the line and have been laboratory tested to arrive at their expected lifespan and warranty. The warranty is 3 years for commercial use (with a 12 months labor warranty) and 5 years for domestic use (also with a 12 months labor warranty).
Most businesses have 3000 operating hours a year – so 3000 x 10 = 30,000. So they will get 10 years usage before the leds start to deteriorate. When they start to deteriorate, they won’t turn off. They will start to fade at 30, 000 hrs. Companies and electricians claiming 50,000 hrs have nothing to substantiate this claim.
A carpark running 24 hrs a day will chew up the hours at 8000 hours a year in three years;, but there payback will be quicker and the lights will still last but not as bright.
Domestic lights could theoretically last 20 years as they will rarely be on.